David Cowan: Does green conservatism have a future?

Finding a common sense approach to Net Zero policy

Firing the starting gun for the next general election, Rishi Sunak tried to shake off the government’s mid-term blues with a decisive speech on Net Zero. By striking a common-sense approach to hitting the 2050 target, the government has been criticised by the Tory left who fear being outflanked by Labour and by the Tory right which would rather ditch Net Zero entirely. But Sunak understands where the real middle ground lies.

The fact remains that the UK is a world leader in decarbonisation. Emission levels are at their lowest level since the Victoria era. Wind and solar power are more widely used than ever before. Public opinion still broadly backs the goal to hit Net Zero by 2050. But the UK only contributes 1.1% of global emissions whereas China produces 28%. Hitting Net Zero by 2050, 2035, or next week in the UK will not prevent the rise in global emissions.

Nevertheless, there are still very good reasons to stick with the Net Zero target. Having a plan is crucial to having credibility on the world stage when pressing major emitters such as China and India to decarbonise. Net Zero has an added appeal since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in helping to reinforce the importance of securing the nation’s energy security. Tackling climate change holds a particularly strong appeal for younger voters, being a fundamentally intergenerational issue. Conserving the environment must not be abandoned in the name of short-termism, and Sunak wisely refused to follow that siren call in his speech.

The real problem lies with how the UK can reach this destination and who ultimately pays. When climate change appeared to be a relatively cost-free issue to campaign on in opposition under David Cameron, it was easier for the Conservatives to promise voting blue meant going green. A resurgence of interest in green politics on the Right was supported by important works such as Sir Roger Scruton’s Green Philosophy, which framed environmentalism within traditional conservative language. This interest has waxed and waned over the past thirteen years but led to significant achievements, such as reforming farm subsidies, reducing plastic use, introducing the blue belt, and pushing ahead with offshore wind energy.

We have now reached a point where there is much less low hanging fruit for government. It is also harder for the cost of Net Zero policies to not hit the pockets of working people. Electoral backlash against green policies is being seen across the West and heightened by the cost-of-living crisis. From the Dutch farmers to the French yellow vests, anti-Net Zero sentiment is a well-established feature of populist politics. But it is also entering British politics. The expansion of ULEZ in London and the proposed congestion charge in Cambridge, both under Labour-led administrations, has handed unexpected electoral victories to the Conservatives.

Environmentalist zeal has also been reaching a fever pitch in public debate. From Greta Thunberg’s cries of the world on fire to the extreme tactics of Extinction Rebellion, Just Stop Oil, and the rest, have polarised debate and inspired existential fear among young people. Left-wing politicians have pandered to this climate hysteria, and endorsed, or at least not shot down, extreme ideas around taxing meat and compulsory car sharing. The government has already passed legislation to tackle the physical obstructionism of the climate extremists but have done less to confront their demands until now. While most people want Net Zero, they do not want it at any cost nor at the expense of their way of life. There are certainly trade-offs to be made on the road to Net Zero, but the climate extremists have neglected these concerns and are starting to pay the price for their hubris.

In this new phase of Net Zero politics, which is increasingly intertwined with our culture wars, Sunak made the right call in using his speech to turn down the temperature and focus on people’s living standards. Delaying the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars while lifting the ban on onshore wind energy gets the right balance in moving decarbonisation forward while easing the burden on working people. Driving is still how most people go about their daily lives. Punishing motorists will only fuel the backlash against Net Zero and undermine the cross-party commitment to the 2050 target.

But Sunak’s speech is only the beginning of the conversation Conservatives must have on Net Zero. Decarbonisation is also in tension with the revival of British manufacturing. The recent government intervention to keep Port Talbot steelworks open has saved jobs but includes a commitment to reduce emissions that will reduce competitiveness with foreign imports. Opposition from climate extremists to the opening of the Whitehaven coal mine in Cumbria, which will produce much needed coke for steelworks, has been deafening. Environmentalists are using decarbonisation to drive forward deindustrialisation further and make the nation even more dependent on imports from major carbon emitters. British manufacturing should not be stifled just to offset our emission costs to the benefit of China.

Net Zero needs to be better integrated within a broader industrial policy. There are many things the government is doing to promote certain industries and develop specific regions, but these efforts are too disconnected from each other. Theresa May passed legislation in the last days of her premiership for the 2050 target without a concrete plan for attaining that goal. But her government did put in place a foundation with its ambitious 25 Year Environment Plan and Industrial Strategy. Sunak should strengthen his grip on the middle ground in Net Zero politics by bringing these efforts together in a more common-sense manner so that decarbonisation can enable, not hinder, the UK’s revival as an industrial power.

David Cowan is co-editor of The Conservative Reader.